Periodic Consumer Price Index in the Philippines: A Time Progression Analysis

Abstract

The core intention of this study is to analyze the behavior and formulate a safe estimation model of Consumer Price Index (CPI) in the Philippines. The researcher exploited the data came from the internet site of the PSA from 2000 to 2018. To apprehend the objective of this study, the researcher embraced the contemporary projecting system introduced by George Box and G. Jenkins, the Box-Jenkins method. This is a statistical tool to shape a scientific pattern devised to estimate a point in time sequence. The data was processed and analyze in pursuing to find the safest paradigm using the said projecting system after January 2018 towards December 2019. The outcomes show that the scheme of CPI of the Country is growing along with certain oscillation. In supplement, the typical CPI from year 2000 to year 2018 stands at 108.20 while the maximum CPI in that phase of time stays at 142.6 that occurred in  trendy December 2018 and the lowermost CPI is 75.3 during January 2000.The process includes identifying the stationary and diagnostics evaluation of data for integrity. Entirely, the researcher arrived the safest statistical prototypical that can foresee the impending standards of the CPI founded on the Akaike Information Criterion as standards in selecting the finest model points to Periodic Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average  (1,1,0)(1,0,0)[12] with drift. This design can help the government to enhance further the economic policies of the country..